You are missing a key point - Big Tech has been under scrutiny by FTC regarding acquisitions. Google would have to climb some mountains to acquire the 82mn$ ARR, which along with the negative margins, makes it unattractive.
"a business doing $82m arr couldn't find a buyer at any price.": Cognition did end up buying the business (really fast) - which proves the business was worth something, albeit super low but definitely not 0. What am i missing?
Google also received a license for Windsurf IP which is a pretty glaring omission from this perspective. They are going to ship Gemini CLI IDE something-something and probably do billions in revenue if they execute well.
this is a really good article! i think you might under-estimate the effects of tokens getting way cheaper over time, but who knows - even if they do, windsurf might have just grown too fast too quickly, and with Anthropic bearing down on them so heavily, even cheaper tokens doesn't seem worth a bailout.
that might, however, be a functioning path for other businesses throwing cash into the token furnace, who didn't paint themselves into a corner with the cheap plans.
feel so bad for the employees that got dicked over.
You are missing a key point - Big Tech has been under scrutiny by FTC regarding acquisitions. Google would have to climb some mountains to acquire the 82mn$ ARR, which along with the negative margins, makes it unattractive.
"a business doing $82m arr couldn't find a buyer at any price.": Cognition did end up buying the business (really fast) - which proves the business was worth something, albeit super low but definitely not 0. What am i missing?
Google also received a license for Windsurf IP which is a pretty glaring omission from this perspective. They are going to ship Gemini CLI IDE something-something and probably do billions in revenue if they execute well.
this is a really good article! i think you might under-estimate the effects of tokens getting way cheaper over time, but who knows - even if they do, windsurf might have just grown too fast too quickly, and with Anthropic bearing down on them so heavily, even cheaper tokens doesn't seem worth a bailout.
that might, however, be a functioning path for other businesses throwing cash into the token furnace, who didn't paint themselves into a corner with the cheap plans.
feel so bad for the employees that got dicked over.