What I'm not so sure of is: The Windsurf founders learned "incredibly valuable" skills? Really? By running a fork of VS Code with an AI plugin for a few years? Because they tried to build their own LLMs, that weren't that good? Why does Deepmind want them?
Google also received a license for Windsurf IP which is a pretty glaring omission from this perspective. They are going to ship Gemini CLI IDE something-something and probably do billions in revenue if they execute well.
You are missing a key point - Big Tech has been under scrutiny by FTC regarding acquisitions. Google would have to climb some mountains to acquire the 82mn$ ARR, which along with the negative margins, makes it unattractive.
"a business doing $82m arr couldn't find a buyer at any price.": Cognition did end up buying the business (really fast) - which proves the business was worth something, albeit super low but definitely not 0. What am i missing?
this is a really good article! i think you might under-estimate the effects of tokens getting way cheaper over time, but who knows - even if they do, windsurf might have just grown too fast too quickly, and with Anthropic bearing down on them so heavily, even cheaper tokens doesn't seem worth a bailout.
that might, however, be a functioning path for other businesses throwing cash into the token furnace, who didn't paint themselves into a corner with the cheap plans.
feel so bad for the employees that got dicked over.
What I'm not so sure of is: The Windsurf founders learned "incredibly valuable" skills? Really? By running a fork of VS Code with an AI plugin for a few years? Because they tried to build their own LLMs, that weren't that good? Why does Deepmind want them?
Fair point, but I think it’s safe to assume if Google paid that they’re probably worth close to it without understanding why.
Google also received a license for Windsurf IP which is a pretty glaring omission from this perspective. They are going to ship Gemini CLI IDE something-something and probably do billions in revenue if they execute well.
Google Jules Desktop, i'd say
!
More and more this is reminding of dotcom days and we know what happened then …
Interesting!
really insightful, thanks for writing this!
You are missing a key point - Big Tech has been under scrutiny by FTC regarding acquisitions. Google would have to climb some mountains to acquire the 82mn$ ARR, which along with the negative margins, makes it unattractive.
"a business doing $82m arr couldn't find a buyer at any price.": Cognition did end up buying the business (really fast) - which proves the business was worth something, albeit super low but definitely not 0. What am i missing?
The scrutiny was under the Biden administration and Lina Khan. That is no longer the case under Trump.
this is a really good article! i think you might under-estimate the effects of tokens getting way cheaper over time, but who knows - even if they do, windsurf might have just grown too fast too quickly, and with Anthropic bearing down on them so heavily, even cheaper tokens doesn't seem worth a bailout.
that might, however, be a functioning path for other businesses throwing cash into the token furnace, who didn't paint themselves into a corner with the cheap plans.
feel so bad for the employees that got dicked over.